Hi ,

Equity markets were a little more volatile during the month, but eventually, both the ASX200 Index and the US S&P 500 Index made new all-time highs. Three out of four Affluence Funds delivered positive returns in January. You can access the latest reports for all Affluence funds from the links below.

If you missed our Affluence Income Trust webinar earlier this week, you can access the presentation and a replay of the webinar below. If you’re looking for regular income, we encourage you to take a look at this new fund.

Should you wish to invest with us this month, applications close on 29 February for the Affluence LIC Fund, and 23 February for all other Affluence Funds. Go to our website and click “Invest Now” to apply online or access application and other forms for any of our funds.

If you have any questions or feedback, reply to this email or give us a call.

Regards,

Daryl, Greg and the Affluence Team.

Affluence Fund Reports

Affluence Income Trust Webinar Replay

Click below to access a replay of the recent Affluence Income Trust webinar and presentation. Topics included:

• Why we started the Affluence Income Trust.
• Exciting opportunities in fixed income.
• Fund structure and key terms.
• Current portfolio features.
• The outlook for fixed income markets.

This is our first new fund since 2016. If you’re an income investor, you don’t want to miss this.

Things we found interesting

Charts of the Month: Lyft Off

Three days ago, rideshare company Lyft went up 60% after their latest financial results hit the newswires. The reason? They reported as part of their results press release, that their adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 500 basis points (5%). The market was temporarily impressed.

We say temporarily because a short time later, Lyft issued a slight correction. It turns out that the 500 basis points number was incorrect, and should have read 50 basis points. Lyft shares then fell back to only be up 15% for the day. A lawsuit from aggrieved investors is almost certain. And someone at Lyft is in a lot of trouble.

Quote of the month:

“Change captures our attention because it’s surprising and exciting. But the behaviours that never change are history’s most powerful lessons because they preview what to expect in the future.”

“Predicting what the world will look like 50 years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I’d take.”

“The biggest risk and the most important news story of the next ten years will be something nobody is talking about today.”

“We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter.”

These quotes are taken from the recently released book, “Same as Ever” by Morgan Housel. It’s a very good read.

The next US President could be…a big surprise

Financial markets are set to be impacted all through this year, by the race for the next US presidency. The two frontrunners are Trump, paying $2.00 to win, and Joe Biden at $3.30. Surprisingly, the next most likely president (according to Sportsbet) is not even in the race yet. Michelle Obama is offering the third-best odds at $10. The theory goes that the Obamas and others are working to convince Biden to pull out of the race. The most likely time for that to happen would be at the democratic convention in mid-August of this year. So, watch out in August if it’s still not going well for Biden in the polls. Anything could happen.

Others you can bet on to be the next POTUS include current Vice President Kamala Harris at $21 or Hillary Clinton at $151. If you prefer a real longshot, you can back Kanye West at $251, who apparently has a better chance than Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg at $276. The current “most popular person in the world”, Taylor Swift, is paying $501.

Financial history lesson:

In February 1837, insider trading was real and legalised. Back in the 1800’s, Wall Street was an unapologetically two-tiered system. NYSE board members traded in top hats from the comfort of armchairs inside the stock exchange, while other traders shouted orders amidst chaos outside on the street. Since they operated on the curb outside the exchange, these guys earned the title “curb traders”. The NYSE board members cared very little about transparency and equal access to information back then. So one sneaky group of curb traders took matters into their own hands. In an effort to level the playing field, they drilled a hole in the NYSE’s exterior wall to eavesdrop on the trades made inside. This information was a meaningful advantage since the members’ trades heavily influenced market prices.

Source: investoramnesia.com

In February 1966, fund manager Gerald Tsai started his Manhattan Fund. He hoped to raise $25 million, following his 49.5% return the year before at Fidelity Capital Fund. Frenzied investors poured $247 million into the Manhattan Fund before it even opened. In 1967, Manhattan gained 39.4%, making a lot of people happy. But then it went on to lose 76.3% by the end of 1974. As always, the people who chase the hottest returns are often the ones who get burned the worst.

Source: jasonzweig.com

Did you know:

For some time, the ATO has been slowly upgrading their website, and significantly improving the quality of the content and other information they provide. The results are actually pretty impressive. For example, here you can access a wide range of information about self-managed super funds, written mostly in plain English.

Vaguely interesting facts.

• The boiling point for water at the top of Mt. Everest is 72°C, 28 degrees below the boiling point at sea level.
• In the late 1800s, residents of Corinne, Utah could buy divorce papers from a vending machine for $2.50.
• The modern popped collar originated as a way to keep tennis players’ necks from getting sunburnt.
• At Lake Superior State University, you can buy unicorn hunting licenses.
• Coin flips are not exactly 50/50. *

Source: mentalfloss.com, wikipedia.com, chartr.com

* Mathematicians have long suspected that coins tend to land on one side slightly more often than the other. Proving this, however, would require hundreds of thousands of meticulously recorded coin flips. Quite frankly, no one could be bothered, not even mathematicians! That is, until about 4 years ago, when Dutch PhD student Frantisek Bartos took on the challenge. He recruited 47 volunteers from six countries, many of them friends and fellow students. Multiple weekends of coin flipping later, the team had performed 350,757 tosses, shattering the previous record of 40,000.

The results? The flipped coins landed with the same side facing upward as before the toss 50.8% of the time. The large number of throws and 50.8% / 49.2% ratio allowed Bartos to conclude that there is a definite bias in coin flips. The reason for the bias comes down to physics. From the moment a coin is launched into the air, its entire trajectory can apparently be calculated by the laws of mechanics. Essentially, airborne coins tend to wobble off centre. This causes them to spend a little more time with their initial “up” side on top, thus increasing the chances of that same side being on top after the flip.

Source: scientificamerican.com

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This information has been prepared by Affluence Funds Management Limited ABN 68 604 406 297 AFS licence no. 475940 (Affluence) as general information only. It does not purport to be complete, and it does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Prospective investors should consider those matters and read the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Information Memorandum (IM) offering units in the relevant Affluence Fund before making an investment decision. The PDS or IM for each Affluence Fund contains important notices and disclaimers and important information about each offer.

As with all investments, an investment in any Affluence Fund is subject to risks. If these risks eventuate, they may result in a reduction in the value of your investment and/or a reduction or cessation of distributions. Distributions are not guaranteed, nor is the return of your capital. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. It is important that you know that the value of your investment will go up and down over time, returns from each Fund will vary over time, future returns may differ from past returns, and returns are not guaranteed. All of this means that you could lose money on an investment in an Affluence Fund. As set out in the PDS or IM for each Affluence Fund, key risks include concentration risk, economic and market risk, legal and regulatory risk, manager and key person risk, liquidity risk, leverage risk and currency risk. Affluence aims, where possible, to actively manage risks. However, some risks are outside our control.

This information and the information in the PDS or IM are not recommendations by Affluence or any of its officers, employees, agents or advisers. Potential investors are encouraged to obtain independent expert advice before making any investment decision.